Aussie dollar aims for the sky 'could hit $US1.70'

• Tim Boreham  from The Australian  May 9th 2011

THE Australian dollar is likely to build on its standing as one of the best performing currencies in the world, despite last week's decline from a record $US1.10 level on concerns of a pending commodities rout.

The rampaging dollar 'could hit $US1.70' as budget and industries threatened

ANZ chief Mike Smith said yesterday that the currency was likely to resume its climb above $US1.10, and one of the world's leading foreign exchange experts predicted the dollar would continue to rise and could hit $US1.30 in 2013 and $US1.70 by 2014.

This spells bad news for non-resource sectors such as manufacturing and tourism and poses a dilemma for the government as it strives to achieve a budget surplus by 2012-13.

"I can't see that there is anything to knock it off its perch because it's not only the strong Australian dollar, it's also the weak US dollar," Mr Smith said yesterday.  "And when you think about what is happening in the US, I can't see them increasing rates for at least 18 months and that will have an impact."

Global currency expert Savvas Savouri, of the British-based Toscafund hedge fund, went a step further, predicting the greenback would be relegated to a "museum", as China reluctantly moved to upwardly revalue its own currency, the yuan.

Combined with ongoing commodities demand and Australia's relatively high interest rate settings, this meant the dollar "promises to enjoy one of the most impressive bouts of appreciation of any currency within the G20 (industrial nations) and indeed beyond".

Dr Savouri, in Sydney for a conference, predicts the dollar will reach $US1.30 by 2013 -- and $US1.70 by 2014, as the greenback relinquishes its "exorbitant privilege" as the world's default currency. "The simple fact is the appreciation of the Australian dollar will be extraordinary," Dr Savouri told The Australian yesterday.

"There can't be a crisis in commodities as long as economies such as China and India are gorging on them.
"The idea that Goldman Sachs or other speculators are hoarding commodities is absurd. If you are building hospitals and highways, you need all of these riches from out of the ground."

On the flip side, Dr Savouri expects ongoing pressure on the greenback, which enjoys "exorbitant privilege" as the currency of choice for traded currencies. He said China inevitably would move to revalue its currency to tackle inflationary and speculative pressures, most notably in the Chinese property market as investors chased yuan-linked assets.
But he believes China will engineer a "soft" yuan adjustment, by which the currency remains weaker (or at least stable) against European currencies.
Having built a huge surplus of US dollar foreign reserves "to the frustration of Washington", China is likely to chase alternative currencies, including sterling and the Australian dollar.

"The yuan's period of being coupled to the US dollar will soon have to end," he said. "It will do so because Beijing deems it time to do so, not because Washington forces the matter."

Dr Savouri is unconcerned about the problems flowing from Australia's "two-speed economy".
On Friday, the dollar touched a low of $US1.05 before recovering to close just under $US1.07.

Whats in store for SME West Australia 2011

We asked the Guru analyst/broker from GMO Richard Marr

What’s in store for 2011?

In the SME business sales marketplace we anticipate:

1. Profits to recover some lost ground

2. Sellers who delayed their sale due to the GFC re-entering the selling arena

3. The big four banks and their two satellites to continue to be cautious in their suitability, serviceability and security analysis of business loanapplications


4. The fringe lenders to become more relevant in SME lending in 20115. The supply of small and micro businesses for sale to increase
6. The supply of medium businesses for sale to increase

7. Interest rates more likely to rise than fall – but the loan funding pool available for SME is likely to improve

8. The supply of buyers in various categories to be affected by the implied reduction in business migrants (as a consequence of policies announced during the election campaign)

9. The supply of buyers to also be affected by the unemployment rate in WA. If the rate trends down below 4% as predicted by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry- sellers will have few buyers entering the market place due to retrenchments

10. The possible combination of increased supply and marginally reduced demand would indicate price earnings ratios or ROI percentages will not trend positively for sellers of small and micro businesses in 2011

11. The larger your business- the better the prospects for a pleasing sale outcome, whilst conversely the smaller and more marginal the business, the greater the degree of difficulty in obtaining buyer interest.

View GMO's informative newsletter, FREE online (below).  See a cross selection of Biz for sale in WA and at what price, get the inside tips from the experts... it's a great read (AND FREE)...
Special article includes "We examine larger business transactions and the price earning relationship in businesses valued between $3million and $60 million"

Open publication - - More auswathai

Matching the market knowledge in the specialised Corporate Insurance market we sought the opinion of Aaron Wilson - Senior Account Manager and Associate partner with Central Insurance Brokers.

pic left - Aaron Wilson - Associate Partner Central Insurance Brokers

The West Australian market is unique in mainly respects, land mass, population but lets talk the obvious! For the past 3 years, with exception of GFC and the Federal political wobbles W.A. has been an "on heat" and the evidence of mass re employment to the mining section,  providing they face minimal interference (polies) Perth will continue to catapult. 

Central Insurance brokerage was established in 1978 by our founding Director Phillip Smith, it's by his relentless pursuit for Industry excellence and stability of onboard long standing fellow Directors Simon Wardman and Noel Carter that Central continues to be in high demand. We place high expectation on our client service standards and the evidence of that success is inarguable from our trading trends.

The past trading period, when the market was in question we excelled, well above market trends and post June reports show we are at the highest gain to Budget and KPI's against benchmarks.

It's one thing to get to number one and it's a whole new ball game staying there. Now we, like many need to be objective and con-concurrent with the new age worker culture given the resource shortage.

The work place 3 G factor
The recent market assessment by International recruitment brokers TMS predicts tough times ahead - to see the in depth report include PPS slide show click here.

Asean Now the Place to Grow - lets go W.A.

Austrade - Seminar Perth Oct 28, 2009

ASEAN Now! The Place to Grow
Your journey into one of Australia’s largest markets begins here.

Image via Wikipedia

The Duxton’s Seminar facilities were at full capacity attendance from local Industry in Perth West Australia.


Patronage was widespread with sectors of Industry from Technology, Mining, Transport, Importers and exporters.

There is no doubt W.A. has serious trading links with our Asian Neighbour and the announcements by the presenters provide significant opportunities for W.A. business to develop these markets.






With Australia’s largest free trade agreement, the ASEAN*-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement, expected to enter into force on 1 January 2010, now is the time to look to ASEAN countries for opportunities to grow your business.



Business confidence in ASEAN is improving, with the major ASEAN economies forecast to grow strongly over the coming years as the global economic recovery takes place.

The message was made loud and clear by the heavyweights of the Asian Trade connection and WA Government


Speakers left to right

Michael Mugliston,

Rod Morehouse,

Adam Denniss,

Steve Arnott.

Titles of office displayed with the speaker topic notes

Speakers and Topics


Introduction:
Adam Denniss, Manager – Export Advisers, Austrade Perth

Introduce speakers, some housekeeping and official launch with via dvd from The Hon. Simon Crean Minister for Trade


Better Business Linkages
Rod Morehouse, Regional Senior Trade and Investment Commission – Asean South, Austrade.


through AANZFTA and Asean Industry team


A footnote – Khun Rod background has roots to Thailand. Educated predominately overseas in Thailand and Canada and later in
Australia at the Universities of Newcastle.





AANZFTA overview and key outcomes
Michael Mugliston, Negotiator , Goods, Asia Trade Task Force, DAFT
Mr Mugliston has lead Australia's free trade agreement negotiations with ASEAN-New Zealand for over four years. Prior to that he served overseas as Deputy Head of Australia's Mission to the EU in Brussels (2001-04) and was Counsellor to Australia's Mission to the GATT in Geneva during the Uruguay Round (1991-94).


Footnote: Michael is a product of UWA

a complex topic: Key tariff reductions/eliminations in sections, rules and Origin.

The information presented by Mr Mugliston was very diverse and complex; consider the achievement of the Australian Government creating a bilateral trade environment between 12 countries. The establishment of a history marking agreement to pave the way for Bilateral Trade Laws, simplifying the way to do business with laws to support the conduct.

Obviously there is going to be some teething problems however it was clear from the confidence and commitment by Mr. Mugliston that this will be done and will be driven by our Government.

I hasten to caution you about website resources, there is now a major legacy of transition of various countries, including Australia to sunset and update their website data; tariffs and the like so if you are serious about your Business then DO contact the appropriate dept., to ratify the validity of the information and ask the next question, what is changing.
For the latest news and presentation media from the Seminars visit this website

Picture right: .. chat after the Seminar

Spiro Politis, Phill Smith (AusWaThai) and Michael Mugliston

Pixel Focus – Spiro Politis
Testimonial to success into the Asian market with acknowledgement of vicarious connections from Austrade.

Spiro delivered practical knowledge about his experience “real time” and identified features that makes the difference - Austrade was and continues to be a key feature of his success. You can read more about Spiro’s success in google – click here


WA Government programs
Mr Steve Arnott, Director Dept., of State Development – WA Government Programs

Image via Wikipedia

Steve acknowledge the enormity of DAFT achievements and the strong Alliance between Austrade and WA.Gov

Quite frankly I never know this entity existed.

During my export endeavours I tended to “D.I.Y” with the admission that when it comes to business enterprise my experience with Government is "cannot see the wood for the trees and cannot see the forest for the trees"

Prov. Cannot perceive the overview or important things because of concentrating too much on details. The information presented in this textbook is so disorganized that I can't see the wood for the trees. The politician's opponents claimed that she couldn't see the forest for the trees, because she spent so much time trying to solve minor problems.

I also acknowledge that my experience shows the opposite with our Government in terms of doing business outside Australia, the likes of:-

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

DFAT Austrade have been quite extraordinary in terms of their achievement and enthusiasm to support enterprise.

Conversely it continues to be my experience with Tourism and trade into W.A. Government is entombed in a manifestation of rules and regulations and of course the mere mention of this will further blacken my path…. Some Ministers need to read and circulate the training module “A complaint is a gift” and get a reframe on the word “Territorial.

I’m not sure how we are suppose to Trade with some Countries when they are not welcomed.

I will now visit the website of the Dept of State Development and update the Directories and

Image via Wikipedia

Networking links on our website http://www.austhai.biz/ – please note: our website has been “in cobwebs” for the past 6 months while we updated our Travel Thailand website.

We then switched our focus to our Travel WA website WITH DISASTERIOUS RESULTS in terms of synergy with Tourism Australia.


Our experience over the last 6 months is Tourism Australia don’t talk, the only TELL (if you get a reply).... it's not good .... so we have moved on to our next medium to help our Community "Business export".

Sadly some workers don't know their employer's "Mission Statement", perhaps they are lazy or bad Management, it's not meant to be a facade. The easy test for this is ask them a few questions or challenge a process and oh boy... so many we have approached about Tourism Australia and I feel like I'm on a certain Aussie airline that show an intolerant view toward customers and Service... oops I say no more

Our Business website – WA and Thailand is now our focus, our monthly visits to Thailand are adding Icons support our Mission statement. The most recent addition, a “Joint Venture” project with SME Bangkok is a website for Aussie Business Execs tours to Bangkok. A draft is on display at http://www.tours.thaibis.com/ .. how does it support our Mission statement ... simple make it easy and attractive for business people to visit, they either see Business Opportunities or that bring back benefits be it business or social. This si what we wanted to do with Tourim for WA but our perception is you can't get in.

Key Points from Seminar
Austrade are absolutely an innovative and entrepreneurial (and very enthusiastic) agency – do

not under estimate their capacity to guide and connect you to markets. The advisers are available for contact to determine viability of your product/service, they have branches in most countries.

Image via Wikipedia

DAFT through their Task Force have creating History, you should be part of it.

Handout Literature – The documentation comprised about 30 pages broken into about 6 sections with diagrams and recital, each is relevant to different markets. It’s very useful information, I’m not sure if it is on any website but simply if you are serious you will and should contact the department. If the energy of the speakers is anything to go by then you will be served well by their workforce.

Rules and Regulations – Transitional – check with the depts. Before you bind your decisions based on the web page data

Image by thaigov via Flickr

Two-way trade between Australia and ASEAN countries reached $88.9 billion in 2008, more than our trade with either Japan or China. Opportunities for business engagement are set to increase when the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANZFTA) comes into effect. As Australia’s most comprehensive FTA, this milestone agreement will give you greater access to a market of 600 million consumers, with a combined GDP of A$3.1 trillion. It will significantly raise Australia’s profile throughout ASEAN member countries, create direct economic benefits through tariff reductions and greater investment opportunities and provide greater certainty for business. More details on AANZFTA can be found at www.dfat.gov.au/trade/fta/asean/aanzfta.


AANZFTA, together with the resilience of the ASEAN economies, their geographic proximity and our strong business and cultural links, will further enhance opportunities for your business in one of Australia’s most prospective trading markets.
Find out why ASEAN is now the place to grow.

Go to www.austrade.gov.au/asean or call 13 28 78


Please note - we only populate and support news Australia and Thailand




*The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) comprises Brunei Darussalam, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

For all the latest news about Business W.A. and Thailand visit AusWaThai Media

Tourism Australia downunder is Under and down

JOHN McCarthy from the Courier Mail gives his opinion on why Australia is failing as a tourist destination:

Image via Wikipedia

TOURISM officials are wondering what has happened to Australia that has caused a slump in overseas and domestic tourists.
Easy. We're boring, expensive, distant and difficult.

Image via Wikipedia

The number of Australians heading overseas for holidays has almost doubled in the past decade.
For some reason, the tourism industry feels this is an abandonment but it really comes down to the fact that . . . well, why would anyone holiday here?

One-time ambassador for Australian tourism Paul Hogan summed it up by saying that despite how we thought about ourselves, the rest of the world didn't really believe we were that special.

We had become so five-minutes-ago.
"Everyone has nice beaches and waterfalls and museums and things like that," Hogan said.

The lovable larrikin commented that when Americans thought of Australia, it was now in terms of our actors rather than our beaches. I doubt that, considering most of them adopt an American accent in the movies, but it's a reasonable point.

Now they want to throw away $20 million of taxpayers' money coming up with a slogan to lure tourists to Australia when what they really need is a reason to come here.

We haven't helped matters by giving China a black eye and then developing a perception in India that we were a bunch of racist rednecks by beating up some Indian students in Melbourne.

Chinese tourist visa applications to Australia have in the past three months plummeted as much as 80 per cent because of political tensions.

Adding further insult is that the two most recent tourism campaigns - using Lara Bingle and then the ill-fated and hideously expensive spin-off from the Australia movie - have not reaped the expected rewards.

When Bingle asked, "where the bloody hell are you?" Britain and Europe replied: "In nice and interesting places like Spain, Italy and France, thanks for asking." Tourism experts said the Lara Bingle-in-a-bikini commercial put women off, and they were predominantly the ones who made the family travel decisions.

When the Australia movie spin-off tried to lure them, those who had seen the film were paralysed by boredom. Those who hadn't seen the movie thought the ad was a Lux commercial.

Australia managed to poke its head above the pack for a while because we were safe, English-speaking, warm and cheap.

But cheap doesn't work when the local currency is above US80 and, let's face it, nowhere is safe any more. Just ask those Indian students or read about the terrorism plans that were being plotted for our army barracks.

Image by In Veritas Lux via Flickr

That leaves warm and English-speaking to counteract the boring, expensive, distant and difficult.

After the novelty value of kangaroos and koalas wore off, Europeans saw us for what we were: England with better weather and less whingeing.
My family recently booked a two-week holiday to Bali but I asked myself: "Why not somewhere in Australia?"
Why am I not supporting our local tourism industry by holidaying locally?
Why not holiday on the Great Barrier Reef, for example? Well, have you seen the prices? We've been there and seen the bleached coral. The reefs on the Sinai Peninsula and Fiji were superior, more fun, less crowded and had a big point of difference: there was a sense of discovery.

Sydney? Spent 12 years there. It's just a bigger Gold Coast.

Image via Wikipedia

Melbourne? Hate shopping and art galleries and I look washed out in black.
Adelaide? Ummm.
Perth? Are you kidding?
Regional Australia? See Adelaide.
Kakadu? My annual income remains below seven figures.
Uluru (Ayers Rock)? Let's see. Fly to Alice Springs, drive for a day to marvel at a rock. Fly home again. Hold me back!
Tasmania? Love to, but have to keep something to do in retirement or possible brain-injury rehabilitation.
Face it, if we don't want to holiday here, why would anyone else?

If you consider that the buying power of the Australian dollar has escalated so much in the past year and that airfares, particularly to the US, have plummeted, why wouldn't you take the opportunity to holiday overseas?

Image by Medusa's Lover via Flickr

Hogan suggested that we should use Hugh Jackman to sell Australia in much the same way as Hogan did with his "throw another shrimp on the barbie" campaign 30 years ago. It's a good idea except Hogan's acting roles were as a laidback, laconic Aussie.

Jackman, who is apparently a top bloke, recently used knives springing from his fist to dismember half the cast in the latest X-men film. Maybe not the image we're looking for.
Hogan said his campaign worked because he invited people to have a good time, to meet some Aussies and feel welcome, but that was a product of its time.

"It'd be a terrible dried-out, burnt-out shrimp on the barbie if we were still waving it about after 30 years."


RELATED ARTICLE

GOVERNMENT PROPOSES 20MILLION TO PROMOTE

===================================================================

Great News for WA Exporters from Austrade

June 2009 Newletter from Austrade ...

kindly supplied by Kate Bickley
Communications & Projects Manager, Western Australia Australian Trade Commission (Austrade)Level 25, Exchange Plaza, Sherwood Court, PerthT: (+61) 8 9261 7923

Export Market Development Grants (EMDG) – $50 million additional funding in 2008-09Eligible small and medium size exporters were facing an expected payout of between 30 and 50 cents in the dollar for expenses relating to 2007–08 under the EMDG scheme. The announcement of an additional $50 million in 2008–09 will ensure that 100% of eligible expenses will be reimbursed. This increase will bring total funding available under the scheme in 2008–09 to $200 million.

as detailed in a new report issued by

The Hon Simon Crean MP AUSTRALIAN MINISTER FOR TRADE


12 May, 2009
Export Market Development Grants -
Extra $50 Million
to Guarantee 100 Per Cent Payouts in 2008-09

Cash-strapped Australian exporters will get a much needed funding boost when their Export Market Development Grants are paid in full for 2008-09.

The Federal Government has delivered an extra $50 million this year to help small and medium sized exporters through the global recession. Minister for Trade Simon Crean said the Rudd Labor Government had delivered for exporters after the previous Government had failed them. "The Howard Government went to an election having expanded eligibility for the EMDG scheme but without the funds to pay for it and deceived our exporters.

"We will not stand by and let exporters suffer - even though the funding shortfall was not a problem of our making. "In the midst of the global recession - but with Australia better positioned than most and with opportunities in the Asian region - it is vital we ensure much needed liquidity to those exporters who continue to pursue trade opportunities despite the most difficult export conditions in living memory.

"The extra $50 million will provide a much needed stimulus to exporters that will protect jobs and increase market share," Mr Crean said. The extra funding will be paid to an estimated 1800 Australian companies that employ more than 34,000 workers. The money will be delivered in grants in June 2009.

Eligible small and medium sized exporters were facing second round payouts from the scheme of as little as 30 cents in the dollar. "With the funding boost, exporters will now receive 100 per cent of their eligible expenses," Mr Crean said. "The Rudd Government is delivering for the nation's exporters. We are supporting our exporters as they try and plan for the future in the midst of the global recession." "We understand the pivotal importance of SME exporters and the critical contribution they make to the economy and to employment."
The IMF, World Bank, the OECD and the WTO have all recently emphasised the enormous challenges confronting exporters.

The International Monetary Fund forecast in late April that world trade volumes would drop by 11 per cent in 2009. The IMF is also forecasting the global economy will contract by 1.3 per cent in 2009. "Trade is an important stimulus to economic growth and must be a central part of Australia's response to the global recession because it will be critical during the economic recovery, when it comes. "The recent signing of the ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement and the entry into force of the Australia-Chile Free Trade Agreement demonstrates the Government's commitment to keeping markets open," Mr Crean said.
The EMDG scheme is administered by Austrade.

If you want to know more contact AusWaThai for guidance about exports to Thailand and support form Austrade. Networking websites available at http://www.austhai.biz/AusThai/network-sites

Events and Seminars


EMDG Coaching SessionsWhen: 22/06/2009Where: Austrade CONFERENCE ROOM – SD Sherwood court, Exchange plazaTime: 8.30am- 12.00pm Contact: Suzanne Davidson ph: 9261 7900
Mission Overseas EventsFor further information on any of these listed events please call 132 878
Aust Corporate Training Showcase and Seminar 10-Jun-09 China ICT - Software Delegation 2009 11-Jun-09 Lifestyle Australia 2009 12-Jun-09 2009 Tertiary Education Roadshow PNG 15-Jun-09 CommunicAsia2009 16-Jun-09 Taste of Australia - Libya 22-Jun-09 Singapore International Water Week 2009 23-Jun-09 Hydrica 2009 23-Jun-09 Consumer Products Series Webinar 23-Jun-09 NZ Building & Construction Mission 28-Jun-09 Cosmoprof North America 2009 Launched 19-Jul-09 Nepal Education Exhibition 2009 22-Jul-09 Australian Education Exhibition in Nepal 22-Jul-09 Shanghai Children-Baby-Maternity Products Expo 29-Jul-09